Barna Group: 43% of Evangelicals Refuse to Vote for Trump or Clinton

on October 11, 2016

Evangelicals find themselves in a predicament this election cycle, with both major political parties nominating unattractive candidates for president. Many say they won’t support either one. The Barna Group released a poll on October 11 showing that 43 percent of Evangelicals refuse to support either Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

“Although Trump has a huge lead over Clinton among evangelicals, the most noteworthy finding in this regard is that more than four out of ten evangelicals currently refuse to vote for either of those two candidates,” wrote George Barna, special election analyst and founder of the Barna Group, commenting on the results.

According to the Barna Group’s poll, 55 percent of Evangelicals said they would vote for Trump and only 2 percent said they would vote for Clinton if the election were held today. This left 43 percent who said they would not vote for either of the major candidates.

“Nearly three out of ten are presently undecided, making them the largest block of undecided votes still up for grabs,” George Barna noted. “One out of eight evangelicals plan to protest the quality of the major party candidates by voting for a third-party or independent candidate.”

These results confirm what many Evangelicals probably know already by intuition – that the Evangelical movement is highly divided this election cycle. “Not just the candidate choices, but the conflict they’ve created among my Evangelical friends and colleagues is taking its toll,” IRD’s Evangelical Programs Director Chelsen Vicari wrote on September 8.

Not surprisingly, the data show that this election is unusually divisive. The Barna Group noted that Evangelicals have overwhelmingly supported the Republican candidate in recent decades. While a majority of Evangelicals support Trump, their support for the Republican candidate has typically been at least 20 percentage points higher.

This indicates that Evangelical backing for Trump is comparatively very weak. If these statistics bear out in the election, George Barna said this would be “unique over the course of the last nine election cycles” for Evangelicals.

Other similar Christian traditions also widely supported Trump, with substantial segments either undecided or voting for a third-party candidate. Trump led Clinton among “theologically conservative” Christians (60 percent to 28 percent), “non-evangelical born again Christians” (48 percent to 37 percent), and Protestant church-goers (47 percent to 32 percent).

However, other Christian traditions broke in favor of Clinton. She led among Christians who said they were “not born again” (48 percent to 36 percent) and Catholics (45 percent to 35 percent).

Clinton also drew considerable support from among non-Christians. She dominated among atheists and agnostics (61% to 18%) and won among “people aligned with non-Christian faiths” (37 percent to 30 percent).

The Barna Group surveyed a total of 30 segments based on faith, ideology, and lifestyle. While Trump led in 16 of these segments and won “handily” among conservatives, this support fell short of his opponent. Clinton maintained a considerable overall lead due to the number of voters in each segment.

“Each of the candidates has a variety of voter segments for which they are the preferred option. But when you examine the size and nature of those segments, Clinton has a clear advantage,” George Barna commented.

He explained that while more American voters identify as conservatives than liberals, ultimately “Clinton wins the liberal vote by a larger margin than Trump wins the conservative vote, further dampening his potential advantage.” He also cited Clinton’s lead among moderates as a reason for her apparent lead.

The Barna Group’s results appeared reasonably consistent with previous polling by the Pew Research Center. Conducted in July through August, this survey revealed support for Trump and Clinton among various religious demographics, but did not account for Evangelicals.

  1. Comment by DannyBoyJr on October 11, 2016 at 11:47 pm

    How can Evangelical Methodists vote for Trump? Given our history of holy living and temperance, as well as our doctrines of Christian Perfection and Holiness; I just can’t see any way to support that unrepentant sinner. I refuse the “lesser of two evils” argument as a cop-out.

  2. Comment by Mike Ward on October 13, 2016 at 2:32 pm

    Who’d you vote for in 2008?

  3. Comment by AndRebecca on October 19, 2016 at 9:20 pm

    I think you are right about Methodists not voting for Trump. The corrupt Hillary is their girl.

  4. Comment by Skipper on October 12, 2016 at 12:33 pm

    Our Christian roots are fading in America. The “lesser of two evils” may be the new norm. Still, there is a responsibility to choose. We know what the status quo means and we don’t want that. They brought activist judges who went against God and redefined marriage itself.

  5. Comment by DannyBoyJr on October 12, 2016 at 6:40 pm

    I don’t know if I can post a link here, but I think Pastor James West wrote one of the most succinct post on the topic.

    goo.gl/22so8B

    “Conformed people can achieve nothing. Transformed people can be the instruments of God and hence the instruments of change. Authentic change, not paltry political ‘change’.

    Christians should stop with their craven and depraved thirst and hunger for power and instead hunger and thirst for righteousness.”

  6. Comment by AndRebecca on October 19, 2016 at 9:16 pm

    Trying to keep America as Christian as possible under the circumstances is what Christians should do and that includes voting for the candidate more likely to keep Christianity out in the open. People around the world are counting on Christian Americans to help them and protect them.

  7. Comment by Deplorable Toad on October 14, 2016 at 9:42 am

    Evangelicalism in America was poisoned by Pelagianism (of varying shades and degrees) long ago. This feminized Christianity is moving to its inevitable end—its final emasculation at the hands of the State.

  8. Comment by Dan on October 15, 2016 at 1:29 pm

    Well, since many of the so-called Evangelicals’ roots don’t seem to run very deep (http://www.pewforum.org/2010/09/28/u-s-religious-knowledge-survey-who-knows-what-about-religion/), I don’t know how much their disavowal of Trump is based on orthodox Christian belief, as opposed to the Semi-Pelaign, Arminian, therapeutic deism they hear in the pulpit most every Sunday and on TV from the likes of Joel Osteen and Oprah. To show how little they understand, I just heard of a couple who left a Presbyterian church and joined a UMC church and then told a friend at the Presbyterian church that the UMC church has the same beliefs, so what did it matter which church they attend.

  9. Comment by Kingdom Ambassador on October 19, 2016 at 3:55 pm

    Praise God! Perhaps Christians are beginning to wake up.

    Another election, another opportunity to figure out that we have been had and that by our own making. If this election doesn’t wake you up to this fact, count yourself among the walking dead.

    Both Clinton and Trump are the inevitable consequences of the constitutional framers banning Christian tests in Article 6, thereby eliminating mandatory biblical qualifications for civil leaders. America has been doomed to nothing but nincompoops, scoundrels, and outright criminals ever since. Sound familiar?

    The 18th-century founders usurped Yahweh’s exclusive election authority (Deuteronomy 17:15), thereby turning it over to We the People, the majority of whom, according to Matthew 7:13-14, are in the broad way leading to destruction. Talk about a D U M B idea! Just where do you suppose that’s going to get us? Perhaps the precipice of moral depravity and destruction!?!

    No wonder following every election, America only becomes more ungodly, less Christian, and further enslaved regardless whether a donkey or an elephant is elected.

    For more, see blog article “Salvation by Election” at http://www.constitutionmythbusters.org/salvation-by-election/.

    Then find out how much you REALLY know about the Constitution as compared to the Bible. Take our 10-question Constitution Survey at http://www.bibleversusconstitution.org/ConstitutionSurvey.html and receive a complimentary copy of a book that EXAMINES the Constitution by the Bible.

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