The brilliant, late Tim Keller continues to polarize conversations for his church planting genius. Key to the New York Presbyterian pastor’s success was his ability to analyze trends, get in front of them (but not too far in front), and implement strategies to meet people where they were.
A few of the legendary church planter’s underlying assumptions, groundbreaking at the time, no longer apply. This is no more a criticism against him than it is a criticism against Napoleon that he didn’t live long enough to plan for trench warfare. But to continue to command open-field infantry charges wearing red pants in the age of machine gun warfare would be foolish.
Wisdom must be contextualized.
Consider three of Keller’s assumptions about the landscape of America for church planting that I now argue no longer apply.
De-Urbanization
Keller loved cities. He saw them as the place from which movements, energy, and ideas were successfully started. For Keller, ministering in cities was ministering to the future. To plant churches in rural or suburban areas was a losing proposition.
This is no longer the case.
Many rural areas are no longer declining in total population, and in fact are getting younger on average. COVID was an unpredictable, “black swan” event that drove many people away from the centralized planning and conformist attitudes that can characterize big cities.
Suburbs, and even many rural areas, are once again growing across the nation. While they might be an hour and a half from a city and still rely upon cities as a center of gravity, cities themselves are no longer the undisputed place of the bustling future. They’re entertainment and business districts for suburbanites. Is that sustainable? I don’t claim to know, when is America ever sustainable? But it is the new reality.
White America’s Premature Obituary
A related assumption that has expired is that investing in White America is investing in declining America. Whites, on average, once seemed irrevocably downwardly mobile (The U.S. white population experienced its first on-record decline between 2010 and 2020). Simultaneously, immigrant populations were generously funded through Medicaid and other government programs to facilitate migration to the United States. A Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) investigation this year revealed how subsidized they were.
Even U.S. President Donald Trump’s first electoral victory seemed like a fluke, the last gasp of an envious, angry, backward and declining socioeconomic group that simply couldn’t get with the times. Much of that turned out to be projection.
As ethnic Latinos, by far the largest immigrant block identified as non-white in the 2020 census, disperse from left-wing cities, they stop identifying primarily as Latino, and begin identifying as White Americans. They also have begun adopting what they view as mainstream American customs, are more likely to express support for Trump, and to adhere to Evangelical Protestantism.
Furthermore, the chief killer (and morale destroyer) of the rural White population—opioids—has been significantly curtailed in the past 24 months, and will probably decrease further due to border enforcement. Returning industry, plus an influx of population from city centers, has brought some of these rural and suburban municipalities to their highest marks in a century.
Finally, the old Religious Right seemed to be graying and on the verge of political fragmentation in the wake of the 2012 and 2016 elections. Instead, a new Religious Right has exerted its greatest influence in this administration, even taking the driver’s seat in Charlie Kirk’s televised memorial service and asserting a divine mandate for the current administration heretofore unseen in modern American politics. White House faith advisor Paula White-Cain, a televangelist and moralist to predominantly rural America, is the first cleric to have an office in the west wing of the White House.
On this side of Keller’s death, we can see that White America and its social conservative elements aren’t demographically going away, and that the small towns and suburbs remain highly relevant as mission fields.
A Cultural Boat Underwater
The third of Keller’s assumptions that now proves less effective is his belief that beauty and art are the way to reach those closest to faith. In time we will realize that the Canadian philosopher Charles Taylor’s inspired calls for artistic re-enchantment and creativity are less relevant in a generation awash in visceral experiences.
Good art always matters, certainly. But the modern sensory art will, if poorly done, be a waste of time, and if well done, only add weight to the side of the boat already most underwater. Imagination will not be furthered by more farmer’s market arts and crafts, more candles, more iconography, or better Christian music.
Some of those things are good in themselves and should be used, but they are not course-correctives to our current moment, they are at best accommodations to our inundated selves and at worst further indulgences into the weaknesses of our day.
These social trends ascendant from 1992 through 2024 are actually, really, truly, finished. The multicultural American experiment is done. The city-to-city era of church planting is living on borrowed time.
The church “for the life of the city” is a slogan that proved presumptive. Churchly emphasis on artistic engagement is even worse, and has proven a costly three decade case study in mission drift.
Yes, some churches built upon Keller’s assumptions will continue to succeed, especially in upper-middle class areas of the midsouth. But, the sun is setting, the landscape is changing, and the harvest isn’t so white anymore.
Keller got much right, and his analysis, courage, and example are all worthy of imitation by the next generation of pastors. Keep reading him, but read him like Napoleon—brilliant, dangerous, innovative, and even still, a man of his time.
Jackson Waters studies at Trinity Anglican Seminary in Ambridge, Pennsylvania, and is a postulant for Holy Orders in the Anglican Church in North America.
More from IRD:
Why No Urban Methodist Church Plants?
Unexpected Anglicanism in West Virginia
Global Methodists and Anglicans: a Complementary Geography
Comment by Corvus Corax on October 14, 2025 at 3:09 pm
Good stuff from Mr. Waters here. Straight to the point and plenty to chew on. Good sign for the ACNA that such young men are called to its Holy Orders.
“Good art always matters, certainly. But the modern sensory art will, if poorly done, be a waste of time, and if well done, only add weight to the side of the boat already most underwater. Imagination will not be furthered by more farmer’s market arts and crafts, more candles, more iconography, or better Christian music.”
I disagree with the general drift of this section. I’m not sure I precisely understand what is meant by the qualifier “sensory” here, although a brief skim of the esoteric linked substack article contrasts it with “ideational.” In my mind, this maps rather directly onto the categories Nietzsche developed in Birth of Tragedy (“Apollonian” and “Dionysian”).
If our present culture produces escapist art through the sensate realm (I would agree), then the problem is with the present culture and not with art itself, which ought to balance or integrate the “sensate” and “ideational” spirit. I see a great deal of slop everywhere and only small pockets of meaningful Christian art being produced on the fringes.
Comment by Qohelet on October 14, 2025 at 4:08 pm
I got lost in the section about the “New Religious Right” and the divine mandate for the Trump administration.
You can’t mistreat the foreigner and take away heathcare and food from the needy and call it Christianity. That’s not Jesus.
Comment by Gary Bebop on October 14, 2025 at 4:54 pm
Great article, cogent analysis, smashed assumptions. Someone had to write an excursus like this. The only unknown was “who would write” such a piece. Jackson Waters got it done. Pay no heed to the quibblers and their quodlibets. Share this article with other mindful folk.
Comment by Clifford Smith on October 14, 2025 at 5:19 pm
Calling Paula White a “Cleric” is generous. She’s self-evidently a heretical grifter.
But yeah.
Comment by Salvatore Anthony Luiso on October 14, 2025 at 6:01 pm
The word “passé” has a connotation of dismissiveness. Was this intentional? I think it may have been, because the author speaks of Tim Keller like an adolescent who says “That old T-shirt looked really cool when you bought it, but it’s so 2023!”.
One might think from it that Keller’s career ended thirty or more years ago–when in fact it was less than three. To my knowledge, no one considered him and his ministry to be old-fashioned or obsolete when he died.
This is not to say that I think Tim Keller is beyond criticism, or that the author has no valid points.
The author says: “These social trends ascendant from 1992 through 2024 are actually, really, truly, finished”: It’s 2025. How does he know that? How does he know that what he regards as a permanent end to these trends isn’t just a blip? It sounds like wishful thinking.
I don’t know what the author means by “The multicultural American experiment is done”. Again: it sounds like wishful thinking.
I don’t know of anyone who thought “white America” was dead or would die out. The fact is that for many years the percentage of the population which identifies as white has been in decline, and on a trajectory to becoming less than 50% within a few decades.
(Less than 50%: like Trump’s share of the popular vote in 2024, and his average approval rating every day he’s been president. I mention these facts because I have the feeling the author is among those who think that Trump’s re-election was a populist political and cultural tsunami, when it was no such thing. Trump defeated Harris in 2024 by a much smaller margin than Biden defeated Trump in 2020.)
Lastly, regarding the paragraph which begins “Finally, the old Religious Right”: The replacement of the “old Religious Right” with the “new Religious Right” is not a positive development, but a negative one.
Comment by Mark on October 14, 2025 at 8:32 pm
This is just orange meat for the MAGA crowd. Tooley and others had been pretty critical of the alt-right and Christian nationalism lately. They even dared to try offer a slightly more nuanced take on Charlie Kirk’s legacy than the endless hagiography taking the rest of the right-wing internet by-storm. Shocking! So my guess is someone had editorial meeting the other day, looked at the articles and responses for the last month and said, “Ok, we need through the MAGA fanatics, Theo Bros, Christian nationalists, and racist dog-whistlers a bone so they don’t abandon us entirely.” And out of that conversation came this little number.
Comment by Gary Bebop on October 14, 2025 at 10:08 pm
“Mark” is doing what commenters do best: he’s fabricating a straw man.
Comment by Paul Zahl on October 15, 2025 at 12:25 am
Paula White is not a “grifter”!
I know her well and she is in my opinion and experience a Holy-Spirit-inspired preacher and healer. If you find out she is preaching anywhere near where you live, Run Don’t Walk.
Comment by Glenn Wheeler on October 15, 2025 at 12:47 am
It’s funny how all these Professional Christians are in competition with each other, are jealous of each other, and are always criticizing each other. That’s what I see in this article.
I had never heard of this Keller guy until now. That’s not surprising, since I don’t run in those circles.
But don’t speak evil of the dead. If you don’t agree with the guy (which I’m sure you don’t since his audience was many times greater than yours) just ignore him.
Article sounds like some prick, know-it-all first-year seminarian who thinks she knows everything chanting out, “That’s baaaaaad the-ol-o-gy. ” (As if everything she believed wasn’t “bad theology.)
Comment by Mark on October 15, 2025 at 12:55 am
Gary Bebop,
Fabricating straw man? A straw man is an euphemism for an opponent who does not exist. Therefore a fabricated straw man would be one that does exist? Double negatives are a b…
Also this isn’t an example of the straw man fallacy since I’m not creating a fictional opponent. If anything this would an appeal to motive fallacy, since I’m speculating on the reason why this article is being published now over two years after Keller’s death. Now you know and knowing is half the battle.
Comment by Gary Bebop on October 15, 2025 at 1:45 pm
“Mark” doubles down on his straw man argument. He indeed “creates a fictional opponent” because he fabricates a conversation and argues that “out of that conversation” came this article (“this little number”). Thus, prima facie, a straw man argument. My comment is intended to suggest that straw man arguments don’t advance discussion of what has been published here.
Comment by Mark on October 15, 2025 at 9:53 pm
Gary Bebop,
Why do you keep talking about me in the third person?
Once again. I didn’t create fake opponent. I speculated about the reasoning and timing of this article, which as I said before is about two years late since that’s how long Keller has been dead. Perhaps a bit presumptious of me, admittedly, but it’s not the straw man fallacy. I’m guessing that’s the only fallacy you’ve heard of. Coincidentally, dismissing an argument solely on the basis that it contains a fallacy is also considered a fallacy. I know, crazy, right?
Comment by Cal on October 16, 2025 at 3:51 pm
“we can see that White America and its social conservative elements aren’t demographically going away…”
.
Some people are very disturbed by this fact, especially white liberals, who were hoping that other whites were as much of an evolutionary dead-end as white liberals are.
Comment by Glenn Wheeler on October 20, 2025 at 9:15 am
Mark,
I think there’s a clue in what you are speculating on in one of the articles that came out today. IRD is mainly “Anti-MAGA Evangelicals” with a little sprinkling of “traditional Religious Right.”
Comment by Glenn Wheeler on October 21, 2025 at 12:28 am
Or let me rephrase that…IRD is solidly in the “old Religious Left” (still solidly within the mainline i.e, UMC), while trying to psss themselves off as “Anti MAGA Evangelicals” and “traditional Religious Right” in order to continue to fill their coffers.
Comment by Mark on October 21, 2025 at 12:27 pm
Glenn Wheeler,
I don’t see the IRD as leftist at all. The group was formed primarily by conservatives within old mainline traditions fighting to as they would call “take back” their churches from Christian progressives. That fight seems to be largely over as most former mainline conservatives have broken off to form separate denominations or left to join more evangelical non-denomination congregations. The IRD has had a complicated relationship with neoevangelicals because it tends to value tradition, sacraments, and some of the liturgical practices of its mainline roots more. It also values institutional oversight as an idea, and has a healthy distrust of pastors whose power over their congregations goes completely unchecked. I think the IRD today is hopeful that it can influence these new schismatic denominations such as the North American Anglicans and the Global Methodist Church to offer a kind of conservative sacramental and high-church liturgical alternative to neoevangelicalism. The problem is that they’re finding a new player on the board in for of these new MAGA/alt-right influencers such as the TheoBros. These groups have been making some surprising inroads in these more high-church conservative Protestant churches in part because they also criticize many of the popular practices of neoevangelicals as well. This is why the IRD is devoting almost as much ink now to combating these new right-wing movements as they are to dissing the progressives. Certainly, they still want to be relevant and above all keep the good-will of the elite donors who really fill their coffers and are now also beginning to deal more in the MAGA camp, but I think they’re also still trying to build that conservative alternative to pop evangelicalism they’ve envisioned for decades.
Comment by Glenn Wheeler on October 24, 2025 at 12:33 am
Mark,
There’s nothing “conservative” about IRD. It’s a sham, an exploitation of a niche market. Believe me, they’re solidly Old Religious Left, it’s just that the market they play to, and from where they get their financing, will only donate if they put on the mask of conservative. They will go along with anything the mainline comes up with and they will remain within the mainline, all the while screeching that they don’t agree…but only for the purpose of securing donations. It’s a scam.
Comment by Glenn Wheeler on October 24, 2025 at 12:50 am
Mark,
Satan sets up a so-called “opposition” in order to serve as a relief valve. It gets people to support what they believe is the opposition, but really what they are supporting is a scam Satan set up to provide the illusion of opposition, but actually it is something completely ineffective. This makes people think they are doing something constructive when actually they are spinning their wheels on nothing, wasting their time, and playing into Satan’s hand.
Comment by Mark on October 25, 2025 at 11:29 am
Glenn Walker,
I think is incredibly naive to assume someone is liberal simply because they are part of a mainline church. I suppose if one operates absolutely exclusively in far-right circles then everything else will appear leftist by comparison, but take it from me that the view from inside is much different and more complicated. As I said before I think IRD sees itself as representing the interests of an older more conservative demographic of the mainline that currently does not feel heard within the leadership of their own denominations. It’s a shrinking demographic for sure, which point this organization at a bit of a crossroads. I’m not saying they never make decisions based on money who’s paying them (show me one think-tank Christian or otherwise that doesn’t), but I don’t see them as leftists in disguise. More like conservatives of a time perhaps.