Presbyterian Church (USA) Chief: Ignore Decline Behind the Curtain

Comment by Loren J Golden on May 29, 2020 at 1:31 am

The PC(USA)’s 2019 membership losses of 50,635 are the lowest the denomination has experienced since 2006, when it lost only 49,544 members.  However, the 2006 membership losses amounted to only 2.14% of the previous year’s membership, whereas the 2019 membership losses amounted to 3.74% from 2018 (for reference, the PC(USA) lost 62,375 members/4.41% in 2018).
 
The PC(USA) and its predecessors have lost members every year since 1965, when the UPCUSA and the PCUS had a combined membership of 4,258,761 (the slightly more conservative PCUS actually had membership gains in 1966, 1967, 1968, & 1970, but these gains were more than offset by losses in UPCUSA membership in those same years).  By the time of the 1983 merger, the combined membership of the two denominations had fallen to 3,131,228 (a 26.48% drop from 1965), and the 2019 final membership tally represents a drop of 69.43% from 1965.  If the PC(USA) loses only 24,415 (1.88%) in 2020 (which would be less than half of the 2019 losses, and the lowest losses since 1998), the denomination will have lost 70% of its 1965 net membership.  However, I anticipate that with the disruption in church services occasioned by COVID-19, the PC(USA)’s 2020 membership losses will be much higher.
 
The seminaries that feed the PC(USA) with pastors still inculcate the same Theological Liberalism that they have for the last century, and this tends to undermine these pastors’ confidence in the trustworthiness, truthfulness, and reliability of the canonical Scriptures of the Old and New Testaments.  As such, PC(USA) pastors are unequipped to give anyone outside the pale of the Church a compelling reason to become a Christian, let alone a Presbyterian.  This is the PC(USA)’s biggest problem, and not only is no one in the denomination addressing it, those entrenched in power in the PC(USA) bureaucracy and seminaries have had their hearts and minds so utterly captivated by Theological Liberalism, that they would be threatened by anyone even suggesting a change to this status quo.  Their hearts are hardened and their minds closed against any meaningful Biblical reform.
 
So despite J. Pollyanna Nelson’s oft-repeated but utterly baseless mantra, the PC(USA) IS dying; she most certainly is NOT reforming in any meaningful sense of the word.

Comment by Sam on May 29, 2020 at 2:34 am

As a church, it died some time ago. As a social organization, and former church, it continues its steady decline.

Comment by L. Cary on May 29, 2020 at 9:01 am

““We are not dying. … We are Reforming.” Reminds me of..:

…Ms. Boudac, our 3rd grade teacher – stern and humorless (long gone to her reward). The classroom had a fish tank.

One day Bob called out from his seat next to the tank, “Ms. Boudac, look! The fish are dead!”

We all looked, of course, and they (3 or 4 small fish) were floating belly-up on the surface of the water. Dead.

Ms. Boudac said, “No they’re not dead, Bob. They’re just resting.”

Comment by David on May 29, 2020 at 9:16 am

The Pew Research Center published a lengthy article in October 2019 on the US decline of Christianity. It is not just one denomination that is in trouble.

https://www.pewforum.org/2019/10/17/in-u-s-decline-of-christianity-continues-at-rapid-pace/

Comment by Jeffrey Walton on May 29, 2020 at 12:55 pm

“It is not just one denomination that is in trouble.” Certainly not, David. Many are in trouble. But in the PC(USA)’s peer group of churches in the Reformed tradition, the PCUSA is much worse off and has been for a generation. The Presbyterian Church in America (PCA) and the Evangelical Presbyterian Church (EPC) have reported gradual, modest growth in recent years. I’m not implying that they have some magical recipe for success that the PCUSA could emulate, but I do think those two churches are better at explaining Presbyterian/Reformed distinctives than much of the PCUSA is. Inclusion is a worthwhile goal, but people want to know why they are being included. “Welcome! Welcome! Welcome!” doesn’t communicate what we are being welcomed to and for what purpose. Reformed Christianity has great answers here, but the PCUSA isn’t relaying those answers.

Comment by Loren J Golden on June 2, 2020 at 10:10 am

Speaking of the PCA, the denomination’s Ad Interim Committee on Human Sexuality, which was chaired by Teaching Elder Bryan Chapell (recently elected Stated Clerk Pro Tem by the PCA’s Advisory Committee, until the General Assembly can vote next year to make the position permanent) and included such notables as Teaching Elders Tim Keller and Kevin DeYoung), has recently published its Report (https://pcaga.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/AIC-Report-to-48th-GA-5-28-20.pdf).
 
In its own words, “This Committee has been tasked by the 2019 General Assembly to ‘study the topic of human sexuality with particular attention to the issues of homosexuality, same-sex attraction, and transgenderism and prepare a report.’  Our task was not to address the whole of human sexuality, but limited to specific concerns raised in our denomination.”  For reference, the “specific concerns” are the challenges raised in recent years by the Revoice Conferences.
 
The Ad Interim Committee’s Report features twelve Statements, or Affirmations, regarding Marriage, the Image of God, Original Sin, Desire, the Sinfulness of Impure Thoughts, Temptation, Sanctification, the Sinlessness of Christ, Identity, Language, Friendship, and Repentance & Hope.  I think the Report well worth reading by every Christian and would encourage the IRD to publish a review of it in Juicy Ecumenism.

Comment by Loren J Golden on May 29, 2020 at 3:51 pm

Joe Carter of the Gospel Coalition published an article in 2015, entitled “FactChecker: Are All Christian Denominations in Decline?” (https://www.thegospelcoalition.org/article/factchecker-are-all-christian-denominations-in-decline/).  In it, he noted that although the Protestant constituency has fallen as a percentage of the American population since the 1970s, the number of Protestants has actually risen.
 
“The fact is that the percentage of people identifying as Protestant has declined since the 1970s while the total number of Protestants has increased (62 percent of Americans identified as Protestant in 1972 and only 51 percent did so in 2010).  Yet because of the population increase in the U.S., there were 28 million more Protestants in 2010 than in 1972.  So did Protestantism in America decline since the 1970s?  Yes (percentwise) and no (total numbers).”
 
The denominations that have lost the most number of members over the past fifty years have been the formerly Mainline Protestant denominations—the PC(USA), the UMC, the ELCA, the Episcopal Church, the UCC, the Christian Church (Disciples of Christ), the RCA—while Evangelical denominations and non-denominational churches have grown.  Membership growth in Evangelical denominations has slowed in the past decade, with membership levels plateauing or increasing only modestly—for example, the PCA has posted total membership gains in four of the past six years and has grown from 359,834 in 2013 to 383,721 last year.  But none of them have shown the catastrophic membership losses characteristic of the formerly Mainline denominations.

Comment by David Gingrich on May 30, 2020 at 9:46 am

The Presbyterian Church in America (PCA) is growing. The Evangelical Presbyterian Church is growing. It is the denominations that were taken over by “liberals” that are dying.

Comment by Reynolds on May 29, 2020 at 9:28 am

Most of the losses are in liberal churches

Comment by David on May 29, 2020 at 4:02 pm

The Southern Baptists are not immune either.

Comment by Reynolds on May 30, 2020 at 12:37 pm

If you take the 7 sister churches and combine their membership to Southern Baptist’s they don’t come close to their total. The largest is UMC and they are about to break apart. You can then follow UMC vs WCA and see which one declines the most. It will be clear that the UMC will be in trouble on twenty years just like PCUSA and TEC

Comment by John Smith on May 30, 2020 at 4:02 pm

One problem with a UMC vs WCA comparison is what do you do with the 2/3rd’s numbers. It seems that the idea is to let Africa/Korean/Phillipine/etc and America share the name but not share doctrines. So are there numbers used to aid the new UMC whistle past the graveyard?

Comment by Lawrence Kreh on May 30, 2020 at 5:46 pm

I believe upon examination that one will find substantial theoligical congruence internationally among the WCA, African Methodists and Filipino and other Methodists. The UMC in the US and western Europe (post-schism) are firmly in the liberal mainstream tradition.

Comment by Palamas on May 29, 2020 at 3:46 pm

So is this Common Core math, or is Nelson just lying?

Comment by Loren J Golden on May 29, 2020 at 4:03 pm

He is spinning (Merriam-Webster transitive verb #7).  So is the PC(USA) (intransitive verb #6b).

Comment by Paul Kersey on May 29, 2020 at 3:54 pm

That’s 3.5% of their membership lost in a year. I don’t have the historical membership numbers in front of me, maybe the slide slowed down. But that’s not what you normally consider a “rounding error”.

Comment by Loren J Golden on May 29, 2020 at 4:06 pm

Actually, it is 3.74%, which is the lowest percentage loss since 2011, when the denomination lost only 3.16% (63,804 out of 2,016,091) of its members.

Comment by Tom on May 29, 2020 at 5:40 pm

Math is apparently hard.

Comment by April User on May 29, 2020 at 9:15 pm

?

Comment by Jeffrey Allen on May 29, 2020 at 8:33 pm

I was an accountant for a manufacturing company for many years. My job became a lot easier after I started rounding to the nearest million.

Comment by Dan on May 30, 2020 at 9:40 am

IIRC hasn’t PCUSA blocked any further congregation dismissals to other presbyteries for a period of years? This would certainly account for the statement that no congregations have been dismissed in the past year! The whole spin of PCUSA reminds me of the famous quote “we had to destroy the village to save it.” 🙂

Comment by LARRY RUED on May 30, 2020 at 11:41 am

Way back when I was a PCUSA elder I remember the Stated Clerk talking about all the great opportunities for new seminary graduates in the hundreds of PCUSA churches with fewer than 100 members who did not have a pastor. Of course, the great opportunity did not mention that the total annual budget for these small churches was less than $20,000.

As a (15 year) former PCUSA member I am not surprised to see the Stated Clerk’s attempt to hide the reality.

Comment by walt on May 30, 2020 at 1:28 pm

The Christian Church of God is not declining. Since disciples were touched by the Holy Spirit the Church of God has grown.
What is happening is God’s winnowing out of those who were never Christians. God is forcing those who are Christians to take sides, to make a stand. No more Laodecians in His Church.
This has been going on continuously for over two thousand years.
All Satan is doing is giving those who are not Christians a reason to doubt God. That is all it takes to see who is and who isn’t a Christian.

Comment by David on May 30, 2020 at 3:02 pm

It will be interesting to see what near future holds for churches. Attending a service now has some sinister aspects. I suspect theaters will be slow to return to normal if they ever do.

Comment by bob on May 30, 2020 at 8:46 pm

A prediction for 2021. PCUSA had 2.5M in 2000 and one in-house study predicted a membership of 1M by 2020. Now if 2020 ends with membership at, say, 1.2M, listen for the whoop of triumph. Of course the honest title to describe the PCUSA (in keeping with the Wizard of Oz theme) should be, “I’m melting, I’m melting, oh what a world.”

Comment by Patrick98 on June 5, 2020 at 11:00 am

Hi Bob,
Back in 1998 I attended a pastor’s retreat led by Houston Hodges (editor of Monday Morning magazine). At that retreat he said that “By 2020 the PC(USA) will be be down to one million members, and the PCA will have surpassed it in membership”. The PC(USA) has just a few more short months to shed 300,000 members, because we don’t want Houston Hodges to be proven a false prophet, do we?
(That is sarcasm by the way.)

Comment by Patrick98 on June 9, 2020 at 9:07 am

On second thought, perhaps Houston Hodges was just using “round” numbers. 🙂

Comment by James D. Berkley on May 31, 2020 at 2:31 am

Excellent reporting, Jeffrey! You hit the nail on the head. Denominational members have not had a PCUSA Stated Clerk deliver a nonduplicitous membership-decline explanation in this millennium. It floors me that basically nice guys in some other ways become shysters when it becomes time to explain plummeting membership numbers. It’s as if fudging the figures were a fundamental position requirement.

What the PCUSA needs–along with a backbone and a return to what should be its first love–is straight talk about decades of decline. Otherwise, one of these years, just as the final superstructure of a once-superb vessel sinks below the surface of a stormy sea, the ship’s first officer will be blathering on about the ship’s remarkable buoyancy with his final gulps of air.

Comment by Loren J Golden on May 31, 2020 at 10:48 pm

Two years ago, Raymond Roberts, a Virginia pastor who then co-chaired the PC(USA) Advisory Committee on Social Witness Policy, expressed his frustration that The Way Forward Commission’s Final Report “lacks theological substance, … does not address (the PC(USA)’s) most significant crisis,” and puts forward “two recommendations that depart from core Presbyterian principles.”  With surprising insight and candor for a Theological Liberal, he wrote (https://pres-outlook.org/2018/03/response-way-forward-commissions-report/):
 
“The Presbyterian Church (USA) has lacked a compelling shared vision for decades.  The drift that has resulted from this lack of vision is much more responsible for the recent loss of members than any General Assembly decision concerning sexual orientation. …
 
Making disciples of Jesus Christ is a core church function and for decades it has been obvious we are no longer good at it.  Statistics don’t lie.  The repeal of blue laws contributed to waning in Sabbath observance.  Colleges that were formed, in part, to give congregational leaders and professionals a critical understanding of the Bible and the faith lost their denominational distinctiveness.  Campus ministries disappeared.  Church camps closed.  Yet, somehow, in the midst of this visible, much-discussed decline, our denomination never ask(ed) how we ought to reform our approach to this core function in a changing world.”
 
Yet no one in the PC(USA) leadership took his concerns seriously enough to do anything about them, least of all the denomination’s social activist-turned-stated clerk.  The 2020 Vision Team, whose mission it was to “develop a guiding
statement for the denomination as it moves into the future,” likewise ignored the elephant in the room and focused its efforts into developing a retooled but vapid mission statement and an interim report full of Theologically Liberal platitudes that utterly fail to grapple with the underlying theological issues that are causing the denomination’s advanced spiritual decay.
 
Nelson’s paltry efforts to gloss the 54th consecutive annual membership loss (the denomination’s 26th largest in the last 70 years), rather than call the denomination to repentance for its theological drift, is nothing more than rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.  The SS PC(USA) has allowed her engines to go cold, while she is adrift in a sea infested with icebergs.  It is only a matter of time before she strikes one and goes down.
 
One can only hope and pray that the ship’s officers would put out an SOS to the Fleet Admiral before it is too late.

Comment by Brother Thom on June 1, 2020 at 8:38 am

We see similar smoke and mirrors acts from the United Methodist Church in America. They boast 12 million members of their website but that number is based on their systemic issue of inflating church membership by keeping the dead and the departed on the rolls.

The UMC’ archaic system of a nearly four-year process to remove someone’s name from the rolls is the cause of this. For those not familiar with this, a church must first try to find everyone on their rolls and make contact. If they can’t locate them, then they must read their names for three years in a row at their annual charge conference before removing them. Nearly every church in the denomination has simply skipped this process and continue to report their inflated numbers every year. The UMC seems to like this scenario because the inflated numbers sound great and keep them in the top three of all denominations.

The UMC charge we split from reports over 300 members every year. In reality, they have about 20. Discussions were held there for the decade I was a member about cleaning up the rolls. But, it’s never been done. Why, … even pastors like the inflated numbers because they can use those numbers in describing their flock.

I suspect the re-formed Progressive UMC will continue to use the fake numbers as they struggle to find a new identity as the Gay Church in America.

Comment by Timothy on June 1, 2020 at 2:09 pm

The PCUSA is a far left political action group which no doubt gives money, comfort and aid to questionable domestic groups, either directly or indirectly, such as ANTIFA and Black Lives Matter; thus furthering the social, economic and moral decline in the USA and beyond. PCUSA is a divider, not a uniter for the Holy Gospel.
Seems its primary purpose is targeted to divisive political purposes and saving its pensions.

Comment by Douglas E Ehrhardt on June 1, 2020 at 5:09 pm

In my area the leftist churches support Drag Queen Story hour.

Comment by William on June 1, 2020 at 5:19 pm

Why bother to even drive by a “church” such as this when one can stay home on the couch and join all sorts of social activists organizations?

Comment by David on June 7, 2020 at 9:27 pm

The current Stated Clerk is about as a tone deaf, hypocritical, liberal Pharisee as they come. He regularly criticizes the current President of the United States by name, calls him out for incivility and bigotry, yet is generally, stone cold silent over similar behavior by his friends in the Democratic Party, letting out only an occasional whimper, decrying the general incivility in our society, lest one presume, he offends the cabal of Waters, Sanders, Booker, and the Squad, who’ve advocated confronting conservatives, specifically Administration officials and fellow members of the Congress, any time they set foot outside their home or a non-public area. He cites the 1983 GA decision to affirm the legality of Roe, while ignoring subsequent statements, which mourns any time a woman, feels compelled to obtain an abortion for purely personal, elective reasons. He decries gun violence anytime someone perceived as a right-winger, racist, or mentally ill commits mass murder, yet released no official statement condemning the when a Sanders supporter attempted to assassinated Republican members of Congress. Israel is to he condemned for all the problems facing the Middle East, yet little or no criticism of her enemies, who’ve basically stated that they wish to finish what the Nazis started. He continually bemoans economic injustices, yet when public officials said that we need to figure a way forward with the pandemic so as to avert economic disaster for our small businesses, he falsely argued that the reason was the worship of money and expressed absolutely no concern or empathy for those at risk of financial ruin. He decried the suggested repeal of the Johnson amendment, but appears to have been stone cold silent, when certain Democratic Presidential candidates advocated punishing those churches which refuse to worship at the alter of the sex and gender goddess.

This man reminds me of the false prophets, whom Ahab wanted to hear instead of Macaiah, whom Jehosaphat said to call. He would rather burn incense to the so-called progressive Caesar, like Robert Jeffress and Jerry Falwell does to that opportunistic Caesar in the White House.

Furthermore, his lackey, who replaced him at the so-called Office of Public Witness is not much better from what little bit I have reviewed.

If it were not for the support that we receive from our church family with my wife’s chronic medical conditions, which far too often leave her now unable to attend church, and the fact that we are a generally stable, classical moderate congregation, I would say its time for us to leave the PCUSA.

Comment by Sims Propst on July 22, 2020 at 6:42 pm

JH Nelson’s mantra that PC(USA) “is not dying but reforming” reminds me of JC Penney or Sears/KMart as they entered and re-entered bankruptcy. And where are they now? The membership runoff equates to votes of confidence and votes supporting the mission. The decline with slow as the denomination is now left only with members who think completely alike. Or, there are hangers-on who refuse to admit that the church has left them.

With so many having left, the denomination is as liberal as it ever has been. The denomination has even gotten more involved in politics, even denouncing the president by name. It is outrageous that the church has turned a blind eye toward so many. Nelson’s comments are evidence of just how blind the leadership is.

Comment by Trey on August 10, 2020 at 11:51 am

Actually much worse than this. Several years ago the Deaconate at my PCUSA Church attempted to scrub the membership roles, as about 10% of the members were inactive, could no longer be contacted via email or written correspondence, and had ceased giving. In some cases the members had left the area for job relocation and wanted to maintain membership as they intended to return to the area at some point. These members joined other PCUSA Churches thus double counting their participation. Others just retired, some passed away, and others just stopped coming. The Church elders kept all of these members on the roles as they had not “formally” noticed the Church of their intent to end their membership. My personal opinion is the PCUSA’s numbers are probably overstating real membership by this amount. Maybe as much as 10%.

Comment by Loren J Golden on August 24, 2020 at 3:20 am

Without a doubt the PC(USA) membership numbers are inflated by membership rolls that have not been properly culled.  According to PC(USA) Research Services (https://church-trends.pcusa.org/overall/pcusa/membership/), the denomination’s membership on December 31, 2019, was 1,301,785 (9004 churches reporting), whereas the number of individuals attending PC(USA) worship services in 2019 was only 560,107 (7171 churches reporting; if we assume the churches reporting membership but not attendance had the same average attendance as those reporting this statistic, this figure rises to 703,278).  Thus, 46% (at a minimum) of individuals who are members on the rolls of PC(USA) congregations did not attend worship services at a PC(USA) church last year.  Even if we generously discount shut-ins who were unable to attend services and military personnel living in areas with no PC(USA) congregation nearby at which to worship, it is safe to say that the overstatement of real membership in the PC(USA) far exceeds 10%.

Comment by Ralph Weitz on October 24, 2020 at 9:16 am

I took a college course in watershed management. When there is a drought, streams have a “base flow.” So about ten years ago I predicted that by now the PCUSA would be at base flow of 1-2% loss, I certainly lost my prophet’s card on that prediction as I continued to observe the constant decline of higher losses. I figured by now the conservatives would have all left and the loss would be the deceased and normal loss to other denominations and drop outs. It is sad to watch the death of theology and a once vibrant denomination.

Comment by Chuck on October 24, 2020 at 5:23 pm

Even rounded numbers would indicate a decrease in membership: 1.4 (1.35) million drops to 1.3 (1.30) million. So however one may attempt to justify it there is some serious fudging going on here.

Comment by frank giuliano on May 30, 2021 at 4:32 pm

Our Katonah NY Presbyterian Church became so liberal its was no longer a Church, but a liberal cult. The new pastor actually conducted a “Hate Trump” march through the Village, soon after Trump was elected. In 2002 we would have 300-350 attending Sunday Service. Then the liberalization started – when we left the church in 2016, we would have 35 -40 people at a service. all the moderates and conservatives left – taking their money with them. the church must now barrow from it’s reserve funds.. no new members for years. This is what the liberals have done to the church. I worry what will happen to our beautiful Church building. The last 3 pastors were there for the great retirement benefits, and they were very open and vocal about that. God was not really important, it was the benefits.