Mainline Protestant denominations have been declining for sixty years and some of these denominations will not meaningfully much longer exist. But will all their congregations recede or die with them?
Perhaps not. The collapse of denominational loyalties in America may be good news for many Mainline congregations.
In the old days, many congregants were deeply committed to the denominations, reading their publications, attending their conferences, heeding their pronouncements, financially supporting them generously and appreciating the wider identity they offered, often across generations. Many congregants across decades left their Mainline denominations with sadness as those denominations further liberalized and failed to offer a compelling spiritual message. Many did not leave, but their children and grandchildren were not interested in the Mainline denominations, leaving institutional religion altogether, or joining more evangelical churches that often were nondenominational.
The membership of Mainline Protestant denominations has declined by millions, and thousands of churches have closed. Many more thousands of churches, some barely surviving with a dwindling number of elderly members, will close soon. But thousands of Mainline congregations endure. Some are vital. A few are growing. And nearly universally they have very few members who care about their denominations. These members simply like their congregations.
I attend a United Methodist congregation. Several years ago, in the wake of the schism, I had anticipated joining the new Global Methodist Church. But the GMC is not present in my area and, so far, seems uninterested in planting in new areas. Of course, I do not like United Methodism’s newly liberalized standards and much else about the denomination. But these changes seem not to affect my church. Nobody there talks about the denomination. Last year I asked our since retired pastor if anybody in the church under the age of sixty cared about the denomination. He quickly replied no. I should have asked how many over the age of sixty cared. Likely not many.
We now have a new pastor. His opening sermon series was on the Nicene Creed. Our hymns and liturgy are traditional. As a traditionalist, there’s nothing to which I can object and much to enjoy. The next pastor could be very different. But likely many even very institutionalist clergy must adapt to the new reality of denominational indifference. No more are congregations kept through automatic loyalty. They must be retained through ongoing ministry that feeds their spiritual desires.
Some Mainline clergy are stuck in old habits and still pretend we are in 1985. Their churches will fade along with the denominations. But others are wiser. I recently lunched with a young Episcopal cleric whose church is near ours. The parking lot is full on Sundays. He told me when he came there during the pandemic while the church was physically closed the old congregation melted away. The nearly 200 people there now are young and overwhelmingly indifferent to the Episcopal Church. Some are Southern Baptists. Many have children. They like having a local church with ministries for their families. He is meeting their needs. This Episcopal priest is not conservative, but he declined a liberal parishioner’s demands that he be politically outspoken from the pulpit. He knows that will not work. And it does not interest him.
Mainline churches like his and mine could hum along just fine for many years regardless of the wider direction and fate of the denominations.
In ten years, most Mainline denominations will likely still legally exist but most of them will be little more than shells. The congregations that will have survived will be indifferent and will have adapted to the new reality of post denominational America. The “end” of the Mainline may resemble the “end” of the Roman Empire, about which historians still debate. Did it end with a particular emperor? If so, people at the time likely barely noticed. Their lives continued largely as before, as others ruled where the emperor had been. And other entities claimed they were the new Rome. In one hundred years, historians of American religion will debate when the Mainline Protestant denominations ended. There might be no conclusive answer.
Surviving Mainline congregations in future years will reorganize into new networks and collaborations that we cannot now imagine. Some congregations that are dramatically heterodox will survive but most will not. They will no longer have the buffer of supportive denominational structures. Ultimately, nature reasserts itself in churches. Orthodox theology that feeds souls wins and attracts people. The artificial alternatives far less so. Denominational loyalty and money for decades delayed this reassertion of nature. But no more.
Many of us fought long battles over the Mainline Protestant denominations, just as the Roman Empire fought wars, internally and externally, across centuries to expand or to survive. But ultimately new cultures, empires and nations supplanted Rome. Protestant theological traditions will survive and adapt, even as their institutional bearers fade into the mists. “Behold, I will do a new thing, now it shall spring forth; do you not perceive it? I will even make a way in the wilderness and rivers in the desert.”
Comment by Stephanie J Jenkins on August 25, 2025 at 8:33 pm
A bunch of us are old. We won’t live long enough for the pendulum to swing back to center. Sad. Leadership of Methodist and Episcopal churches need to be removed
Comment by Steve T on August 25, 2025 at 9:48 pm
Those aren’t churches, they’re social clubs. Lukewarm, like the church in Laodicia. Sin isn’t discussed because you might hurt feelings. Jesus is your buddy and everyone is going to heaven. The Great Commision is forgotten, instead, all religions and alternate lifestyles are accepted and celebrated. Mission work seldom happens due to lack of money. Sounds like the wacky liberal ELCA Lutheran church we left a couple years ago.
It can be difficult to leave the denomination you were raised in, but trust me, it is well worth it. We left for a non denominational bible centered Christian church. It’s like a veil was lifted. I wish we had left years ago.
Comment by Lowell Patterson on August 25, 2025 at 11:22 pm
To the age of twenty-two, I cannot identify a single pulpit preacher I sat in front of that was born from above. Without that, they have nothing of Christ to give: they are not part of the family. (2) As published in CHARISMA, years ago: C.Peter Wagner commissioned students to do research: world-wide, asking the question “ How much do you pray”? Answer: among main-line denominations: 15-20 minutes a week. Among evangelicals: 15-20 minutes/day. Among South Korean leaders-apart from Roman Catholic Church: 4 to 5 hours a DAY. Among all groups: the largest churches are in South Korea. Leadership cannot exist but by prayer.
Comment by Salvatore Anthony Luiso on August 25, 2025 at 11:39 pm
The author seems to me to be saying that market forces, or popular demand, will preserve some congregations despite or without denominational support structures.
Christianity does not, should not, and cannot depend upon market forces and popular demands for survival.
Regarding “Orthodox theology that feeds souls wins and attracts people. The artificial alternatives far less so.”: I think church history shows this isn’t always so.
Right now, congregations which promote Prosperity Theology are “prospering” more than congregations which do not hold that error.
We should not judge the health of a congregation based merely upon the size of its membership, whether it’s growing, or how active it is.
Regarding “Protestant theological traditions will survive and adapt, even as their institutional bearers fade into the mists”: I would say that, generally speaking, even Protestant churches which are theologically conservative have become more worldly and lowered their moral, intellectual, and artistic standards since the 19th Century.
Comment by Roy Jacobsen on August 26, 2025 at 7:49 am
There are numerous spirit filled, theologically orthodox churches remaining in the UMC. For various reasons these churches more aligned with the emerging GMC could or would not disaffiliate. I served two such churches in the most liberal conference in the UMC and both remain UMC. As Walton stated in his piece maybe two or three persons in the entire congregations over my 40 years of service could care less about denominational things. Only when the conference veered into pro abortion and advocacy of sexual minorities did the church awake. These two churches are currently served by two excellent orthodox spirit filled pastors. But the future for appointing clergy such as these is bleak. Also Jim the new GMC is focused on starting new congregations. I understand your frustration about DC. I live in a state where there are no GMC congregations. This will change. Be patient and pray.
Comment by David Gingrich on August 26, 2025 at 7:49 am
The UMC is a TERRIBLE organization to support financially.
A United Methodist Church is a TERRIBLE place to raise a child.
Do better.
Comment by Tim Mc on August 26, 2025 at 9:06 am
My question for Mark Tooley is this:
So you go to a UMC church, do you tithe to that church? Have you cut back, how much you give to this UMC church? Do you give more money to other churches or church organizations, such as Samaritans Purse or to the GMC?
What you do with your money, will tell us what you really believe.
Comment by Kerry D. Bowers on August 26, 2025 at 11:03 am
If by your number in attendance and contributed resources you support that which is an abomination to the Lord, doing so when options exist to to provide the same to that which is not an abomination, then I ask, what is your idol? Is it placing attachment to people, facilities, other material things, or financial reward that serve to your comfort rather than that which the Lord would have you serve through your number and resources to the keeping to His Word? Remember what Jesus said if contributing to that which may cause a child to sin as could happen with misleading preaching from the pulpit or private counseling, each made possible in some measure through your resources and to which you are aware of where and to what you are contributing. Matthew 18:5 “But if anyone causes one of these little children to sin, it would be better for him to have a large millstone hung round his neck and to be drowned in the depths of the sea.”
Comment by Gary Bebop on August 26, 2025 at 11:45 am
Mark Tooley’s topic gets us nattering because we all wonder what will happen next, with strong predilections about that. None of us, however, knows the future, and there could be surprises. But unless the birth rate within the mainlines increases, the die is cast. But who’s willing to talk about raising the birth rate?
Comment by Elizabeth Claver on August 26, 2025 at 12:43 pm
Thank you for this analysis of mainline protestant denominations! It describes the past few decades of our small, historic community church, founded 250 years ago so NH could make our small village become officially a town. Congregational churches are governed by their members. Each tends to be independent and likes to connect with a variety of neighboring congregations, even in other denominations. This works well for many events that are open to all area townspeople. Our denominational history begins when we joined the United Church of Christ in the 1960s. Because of the UCC’s many non-biblical values, the Biblical Witness Fellowship was formed and joined by similarly minded churches all over the country. After our pastor was harassed by UCC leadership because many churches were leaving the denomination. Since BWF is not active anymore, we left the UCC. We are now a member of the 4 Cs, the Conference of Congregational Christian Church, a large nation-wide group of like-minded Bible-believing churches. Our current pastor emphasizes the need to be part of the “Big C Church.” This is basically acknowledging that all Christians are “One in Christ Jesus.” It is faith that is important, not the church’s denomination or location.
Comment by Jeff on August 26, 2025 at 12:46 pm
My mother (God rest her soul), taught her children to stay focused on God the Father, His Son Jesus Christ, the Holy Spirit, and the Bible. We were in a small Methodist Church, (Circuit pastor with 3 small Churches), then helped 2 start ups (Church of Christ and Nazarene). All 3 are defunct and long gone.
But God remains. Those were buildings controlled by central committees and outreach pastors. It was odd, but over the years two central figures mentioned they should have done more to support the growth outreach. One was a pastor of the outreach committee at a church. He heard my last name and connected the dots. “We should have done more to support.” Yea. 15 years after it failed. God remains. The church is gone.
I had rejoined a Methodist congregation 110 miles away, and 30 years distant. I met an aged Deacon, in one of his final roles. Wearing resplendant robes of purple and gold. After introduction we chatted. Somehow he remembered the last name.. “we failed you and we failed the church .” God remains.
The church I joined is now gone, collapsing as many, about 12 or more years ago. Formed in the mid 1800s, built in 1860. Beautiful building and incredible spiritual energy in the building. But not in the denomination, and failing in the congregation. I saw the same cliques, the same looks, the same behaviors. I left before the collapse.
But God remains.
Grandfather told me 50 years ago I should go shoot several quail that were in a covey that we had on the farm. He said the quail will not expand unless you break the covey up. Being a young teenage hunter, I knew it was against the law, but I did it. Next year we had 2 covey of quail in the area. Maybe we are meant to meander between failing buildings and denominations, but yet while growing His Church.
God remains, Christ remains, the Holy Spirit remains. His Word remains. The outcome doesn’t change. He weeps for our pain and suffering. This is not what He wants, His Church divided and fighting. His alters desecrated.
God remains.
Comment by Shiv Parihar on August 26, 2025 at 1:15 pm
The mainline churches are the only truly Protestant institutions in America. I have the utmost respect for you for remaining in the UMC. The GMC is an institution built upon a foundation of absurdity, where a majority faction elected to secede from a minority, dividing the catholic church, bride and body of Christ, ever further.
The very notion of dividing the church in such a way is foreign to Protestantism, but rather the product of non-denominational theology, which renders each man a denomination unto himself. Christ wrote no books, he founded a church. The PCUSA/TEC/ELCA/UMC/, etc. are branches as much as Rome, Alexandria, and Constantinople may claim to be and none took it upon themselves to schism.
Imagine if Athanasius had seceded and let the Arians have the church, if the faithful of the 10th century had abandoned their corrupt bishops under the Pornocracy (the genuine academic term for this period), if the Reformers had instead been revolutionaries. The solution to a church in crisis is to hunker down and reform, not to leave.
This ended up much longer than I intended, apologies, but my kudos and deep respect again to you Mark.
Comment by Td on August 26, 2025 at 1:50 pm
What you describe is the eventual result of protestantism the complete deconstruction of the faith to where each of us decides the tenets of the faith for ourselves. It is a surrender to the culture and abandonment of the faith. Please reference 1 and 2 kings. Ancient israel abandoned the law and adopted the culture surrounding them.
Comment by DT on August 26, 2025 at 3:55 pm
I am a church planter (GMC) and want to encourage you, Mark, to start your own house GMC. Our church is small based on Acts 2:42-47, with an emphasis on discipleship and kingdom multiplication. Praying for God’s will to be done in the DC area. Blessings
Comment by Qohelet on August 26, 2025 at 4:59 pm
I of course have to respond to the partisan attack but before that let’s all admit we know the names of the two biggest killers of church attendance: travel soccer and travel baseball. Gen X and millennials turned their parent raising responsibility over to the youth sports industrial complex and it didn’t have time for church.
Beyond that though, I don’t think mainline denominations “failed to offer a compelling spiritual message.” Most folks I know who don’t go to church don’t spend a lot of time thinking about the UMC or the PCUSA. They’re simply horrified at the objectively bad stuff people who call themselves Christians do. Why would any good person look at ICE ripping mothers away from infants or rearranging the tax code to take from the poor and give to the wealthy and say ooh that’s what I want to do? But yet millions of “Christians” cheer this on.
Jesus told us to love one another. That includes feeding those who need it, visiting folks in prison, caring for their health and quenching their thirst. And yet Christian Nationalism blasphemes His name by doing exactly the opposite.
My little mainline congregation limps along quietly doing the best mission work we can. Folks would find a compelling spiritual message if they would walk through the door. But why would a moral person want to become a Christian in a world where the loudest Christians do the opposite of everything Christ stood for?
Comment by Gary Bebop on August 26, 2025 at 6:47 pm
So we have a troll at this site. They always present themselves heavily cloaked in censorious quodlibets. But we recognize them by their caricature of conservative Christianity.
Comment by Thomas on August 26, 2025 at 6:49 pm
Thanks, Mr. Tooley, for this article. I am quite sure you will be joining GMC anytime soon.
Comment by Qohelet on August 26, 2025 at 8:57 pm
It’s interesting being called a troll on a website that employs multiple columnists just to bear false witness against the UMC, but I guess I’ll accept the honor.
That said, do you have any actual defense of Christian Nationalism? The Bible is very clear on how we’re to treat foreigners, widows, orphans, and the poor. MAGA delights in its public cruelty towards these very groups. Why are conservative Christians silent on this?
Comment by Gary Bebop on August 27, 2025 at 12:41 am
Trolls should come clean and show their credentials, not hide behind an act.
Comment by Cal on August 27, 2025 at 8:27 am
My personal experience, from when I used to attend before wising up, is that mainline churches are primarily by and for liberal females, and for weak men whose goal it is to serve females. This is a limited constituency for that.
Comment by Qohelet on August 27, 2025 at 1:13 pm
Cal, you might have hit the number one reason why decent moral people are giving up on Christianity: the insistence conservatives have on female subservience. My greatest generation grandfather was not weak for teaching his daughters they had the same worth had his sons. But the refusal of the Catholic Church to think the same way is the reason most of my cousins wouldn’t even consider church attendance.
Comment by Skipper on August 27, 2025 at 3:35 pm
Mark, how can you complain about no Global Methodist Church in your area if you haven’t tried starting one yourself? Perhaps the real question here is are the old Mainlines still denominations within Christianity? Those who redefine marriage as two people, accept Trans-genderism and sexually perverted ministers really don’t quality. They are not following Christ, but someone else. That gets the ELCA, TEC, USA Presbyterian, and UMC for starters. The Bible says to flee from evil. Proverbs 27:12 tells us “The prudent see danger and take refuge, but the simple keep going and suffer for it.” Don’t walk away, run!
Comment by Qohelet on August 27, 2025 at 6:00 pm
Yeah right. Accepting transgender people (who aren’t even mentioned in the Bible once) is somehow not following Christ but doing the exact opposite of what he said to do with regards to the poor, the sick, the thirsty, and the foreigner isn’t? Quit your blasphemy.
Comment by Skipper on August 27, 2025 at 11:29 pm
That was accepting the behavior of Trans-genderism, not an individual practicing it.
Comment by Gary Bebop on August 28, 2025 at 11:32 am
Mark, this free-for-all in the comment section doesn’t advance any serious discussion but is used by nincompoops and trolls for barking at the moon. Clean this up. Put comments behind a paywall.
Comment by Qohelet on August 28, 2025 at 1:07 pm
So Gary you want to be able to talk freely about how terrible my church (the UMC) is but you want to muzzle anyone who would defend it.
Also, you’ve sure called me a lot of names. What you haven’t done is offer any Biblical justification for Christian Nationalism despite me asking multiple times. I humbly suggest if you’re going to call other people heretics that you take the beam of wood out of your own eye.
Comment by Gary Bebop on August 28, 2025 at 1:43 pm
I’m not in the market for red herrings. (Mark, like I said, put this behind a paywall so it encourages serious discussion, not a mere exchange of bilious opinionating.)
Comment by Qohelet on August 28, 2025 at 2:46 pm
No red herrings here. Mark postulated that liberal churches failing to be spiritual has led to their decline. I countered that the failure of the most powerful churches in the country to care about anything Christ stood for has led to widespread rejection of Christianity as having any relevance to morality.
You chose to call me names. I don’t blame you- I’ve asked you to defend the undefendable and implied that you’re not a Christian.
That said, if you don’t care about the poor, the hungry, the widows and orphans, or the immigrants, you AREN’T a Christian.
Comment by Gary Bebop on August 28, 2025 at 5:20 pm
Tossing up memes (trigger words) like a child throwing mud and mire is not a conversation, nor is it a self-evident case. You are trying to provoke the snake with a stick.
Comment by A convert on August 29, 2025 at 6:32 am
The Catholic Church has outlived empires, kingdoms, nation states, and heretical movements that get recycled every few centuries. I left the UMC for the church founded by Jesus Christ, and encourage you all to explore the One, Holy, Catholic, and Apostolic Church
Comment by Td on August 29, 2025 at 7:14 pm
A convert- my thoughts exactly.
Comment by Skipper on August 31, 2025 at 7:21 am
The Bible is very clear that homosexual relationships are very evil and destroy your relationship with God. By defining marriage as ‘two people’ the United Methodists are the last of the old Mainline denominations to fall. They have gone over to the other side – in disobedience to God. So sad!
Comment by Skipper on August 31, 2025 at 7:24 am
“A Convert”, so you have joined the Roman Catholic denomination. It’s current and past Popes seem confused over sexuality. At least they stopped short of approving same sex marriage.
Comment by Thomas on August 31, 2025 at 12:29 pm
Skipper, don`t be a liar. You`re talking only about Pope Francis. He still never changed the Catholic Church doctrine on human sexuality and marriage. He made a mess in the Church, we hope Pope Leo XIV will be able to correct the confusion he made.
Comment by Skipper on August 31, 2025 at 4:50 pm
I found Pope Francis “allowed priests to offer blessings to individual same-sex couples as a means of showing kindness and mercy, not as an endorsement of their union.” That sounds a bit confusing. Leo XIV said the family is based on the foundation of a “stable union between a man and a woman.” That is quite an improvement. Perhaps he would want to rescind what Francis said.
Comment by Jon Lindgren on September 1, 2025 at 10:47 am
Mark is logical in his prediction that denominations will become smaller and smaller. What he did not cover are the demographics of Christianity in total. About half of each new generation leaves Christianity. When Mark writes most members of the public do not care about the battle among denominations, he is right. What is also true is that increasingly members of the public have not heard about and are not interested in hearing about the tenets of the faith. Today’s church goers can stay with their older denomination or jump to one they like better. Ultimately, they will all shrink as the public moves on.
Comment by Tim on September 1, 2025 at 11:49 am
The UMC church in my small, conservative town likes to flash a certain message on their display: “LGBTQ+ ally!”.
Click.
Comment by Roger Corbin on September 2, 2025 at 4:43 am
Most mainline denominations are merely pension funds for pastors. It is the only glue that holds many of them together.
Comment by Glenn Wheeler on September 3, 2025 at 7:42 am
Agreed, Roger. The mainline denominations and their associated para-organizations (like IRD) are sources of good salaries for Professional Christians. Jesus certainly does pay well.
Comment by samuel on September 3, 2025 at 9:58 am
Generally, Protestantism is the most accurate form of the NT church today. Contrary to other poster’s assertions, it does not lead to a man, alone in a room, with his bible. I belong to a solid and loving non-denom. church and none of us agree on every theological issue, however we love and accept each other and look forward to fellowshipping with each other.
It is a great thing that the corrupt mainline denoms. are dying out. I hope they die out faster as they are a blight. They are just social clubs covered by a thin, and worn, veneer of Christianity.
Christianity should always be “reforming.” There is no biblical requirement for Christians to adhere to and obey a thoroughly corrupted church leadership, i.e. the decades, if not centuries, of corrupted Catholic popes, bishops, and priests. I thank God for Martin Luther and the other Reformers. How dark would the world be today without their work. No one believes that the corrupted church of that time would have ever reformed itself.
Comment by Jan Hus on April 2, 2026 at 10:39 pm
It was my own baptismal church– the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America (ELCA)—that has mimicked this horrific “woke” trend among liberal Protestant churches of being essentially the “Democrat Party at prayer”. Their congregations immediately responded by stampeding — right out the front door! Frankly it seems as if the late Pope Francis and now Leo XIV were determined to duplicate their feat. Liberals never learn!