Trump and the Evangelical Dilemma

Defining Evangelical Christians, the largest religious group of Republicans and approximately one-fifth of all Americans, is a surprisingly difficult task. According to the National Association of Evangelicals’ statement of faith, Evangelicals believe that “the present ministry of and regeneration by the Holy Spirit is absolutely essential.” They generally focus on the centrality of the work of Jesus Christ, the spread of the Gospel, and the consequent conversion of non-believers.

Evangelicals have comprised an increasing percentage of the electorate over the past three elections, and 2016 will be the first year in which Millennial Evangelicals will encompass the same amount of voters as the Baby Boomers, their preceding generation. Given their expanding political influence at the polls, one important question is continuously raised: how will Evangelical millennials vote?

It is the significance of this question that led Will Higgins and me to write a 2-part series exploring the nature of Evangelicals (primarily the millennial generation), their role in the upcoming election, and their general consensus on presumptive GOP Presidential Nominee Donald Trump.

As a Trump-Clinton election has become all but inevitable, many Evangelical leaders have advocated for alternatives to supporting Trump. They have done so since Trump became a serious candidate, although it has not entirely succeeded. Despite Cruz’s establishment of a national prayer team, Rubio’s claims to frequenting an Evangelical church, and the Christian Post encouraging Evangelical voters to back away from Trump, he has managed surprising success with the group despite misnaming a book of the Bible, a denial of his need for forgiveness, and his repeated tendencies toward vulgar and vitriolic speech. But the Evangelical youth (18-29) that support Trump see the controversial GOP candidate and his role in the upcoming election through a very different lens.

A quick look at this growing demographic reveals that it tends toward a liberal majority. A study by Harvard’s Institute of Politics shows that Clinton wins the majority of youth voters on the aggregate, considering both sides of the aisle. Unlike years past, four out of ten millennials claim to be moderates, and nearly one out of four say they are nonreligious. They are also the first generation in which religious progressives hold a majority over those who identify as religious conservatives, a fact which mirrors the political shift as well. Factors such as rising unemployment, recession, and the ever-mounting cost of education are cited for this trend, but a survey last week on June 15^th showed Trump beating Clinton by 45 points among white Evangelicals. This lead, while it may seem significant, is smaller than past GOP presidential candidates held in the same demographic.

The Evangelical youth is mostly comprised of non-immigrant conservative whites who lean primarily to the right, despite the growing progressive movement. Common exceptions to these statistics include an acceptance of homosexuality and gay rights and more liberal perspectives on immigration. Overall, it appears that Trump has his work cut out for him when it comes to both the mainstream religious right and the more progressive Evangelical youth. However, recent news has shown his knowledge of the need to focus on winning Evangelical support.

Trump’s latest efforts have conveyed his intention to appoint “anti-abortion” Supreme Court judges, to relentlessly combat radical Islamism, and to uphold religious liberty by releasing the ban “on tax-exempt groups [such as churches] making explicit political endorsements”, a statement Trump claims “petrifies” religious leaders in America. Endorsement of this religious freedom agenda was highest among Evangelicals, at 42 percent. Despite Evangelical groups like Better for America, who adamantly oppose Trump, his recent establishment of an Evangelical advisory board to regularly “provide advisory support on those issues important to Evangelicals and other people of the faith in America” has helped excite the Christian conservative audience—well, at least those willing to listen.

No matter which side they choose, Evangelicals will have an influential role at the polls in November, especially the newer, more progressive millennial generation. Despite a substantial amount of opposition within the group, Trump has the majority of the Evangelical support. Only time will tell if it will be enough.

Although we know how they may vote today, why are some of the Evangelical youth, a group swaying to the left, attracted to Trump, and what reasons do they give? Does their support have much to do with their religious views, or can it be traced to an independent factor? Watch for Will Higgins’ follow-up article exploring some potential answers to these questions.