The Pew Research Center’s much-hyped report on the decline in Christian religious affiliation in the United States seems to have undue alarm on the part of some faithful Christians and undue glee on the part of others. One reason for calm has been widely discussed: many of those who now claim no affiliation were likely merely nominal members who out of custom or for perceived social benefit claimed religious affiliation. Another would be the consideration of wider trends within American society away from civic engagement on many levels.
The 2014 General Social Survey reports that 75% of adult Americans still believe in God; including those with occasional disbelief and those who believe in a higher power, that percentage increases to 92%. Church attendance for Americans who have a religious affiliation is only down 1% since 1991, and those who claimed to pray once a day were up 1% since 1990 while those who claimed to pray several times a day were up 4%. 33% of people surveyed in 1990 believed the Bible was “the actual word of God and is to be taken literally, word for word;” that percentage only fell to 32% in 2014. Pew reported in 2013 that 73% of adults “believe Jesus was born of a virgin, including one-third of Americans with no specific religious affiliation.” Gallup reports that in 2013, 39% of those surveyed had attended a church in the last week, down only 1% from 1992.
Thus, while affiliation has declined, it would seem that America’s religiosity – and especially Christian religiosity – has not. The 2014 General Social Survey puts atheists and agnostics at a mere 8% of American society, and Pew puts them at 7%. Gallup reports that in 2013, 56% of responders indicated that religion is very important in their life; only 22% want organized religion to have less influence in the nation. 56% said they believe religion can answer all or most of life’s problems; 80% had between “some” and “a great deal” of confidence in organized religion. 75% of those surveyed believed it would be better for America if more Americans were religious. Religion remains an important factor in American life and society.
Robert Putnam and David Campbell’s 2012 book, American Grace: How Religion Divides and Unites Us, gives some suggestions as to why religious affiliation has diminished while religiosity has remained essentially unchanged. Their book is an analysis of what religion and religious affiliation looks like in an American context. They found that switching between religious denominations was very common, something 35-40% of Americans do. Interfaith marriage is on the rise; one half of married adults married someone of a different faith, while 16% of married adults converted to their spouse’s religion. Looking at the rise in “nones” by generation as the latest Pew report does, one can see that social change is playing a large role in people’s decision not to affiliate –especially since their beliefs have remained largely unchanged. Millennials born 1981-1989 were over four times as likely to be unaffiliated as those born 1928-1945, three times as likely as Baby Boomers, and more than twice as likely as Generation X.
According the Corporation for National and Community Service’s 2010 study Civic Life in America, only 26.5% of Americans volunteered with an organization; another 7.9% “worked with neighbors to solve a community problem.” Of the organizations for which people volunteered, 35.6% were religious – nearly 10% above the next category “Education and Youth Service.” Of those that reported participation in a group, 18% participated in a church or religious group while 15% participated in a school group, the next largest category. Here again, millennials were the least likely to associate. They were the least likely to vote compared to other age groups by between 16 and 32%; less likely to participate in one or more groups by 8-10%; less likely to volunteer by up to 8.5%; less likely to participate in a non-electoral political activity by up to nearly 13%; and they were the least likely to work with neighbors to solve a problem. American social capital is in decline, and religious affiliation is not alone.
Robert Putnam’s other research, including his 2000 book, Bowling Alone, points out the decline in social capital within the US. He argues that participation and identification with community groups is on the decline while association with mass-membership organizations (AARP, NRA, etc.) is on the increase. According to a 2013 Pew survey on civic engagement, only 48% of Americans took part in at least one civic group or activity. “35% of American adults have recently worked with fellow citizens to solve a problem in their community. 22% have attended a political meeting on local, town, or school affairs 13% have been an active member of a group that tries to influence the public or government.” This compared to the GSS report of 24% of Americans who attend church weekly (add roughly 30% for those who attend several times a year or more). According to the Census Bureau, in 2008 only 49% of millennials voted, compared with approximately 70% of older generations; that number decreased to 38% in 2012. According to Gallup in 2014, nearly 20% of Americans between 18 and 40 identify as independent (could one say “unaffiliated”) when questioned about their political party. According to the same survey, nearly half of Americans between 18 and 30 initially identify as “independent” but “lean toward either party when probed.” According to Gallup, “These results highlight, again, the political detachment of the younger generation… The percentage of Americans who are independent drops at a remarkably steady rate across the entire age spectrum.” These results mirror statistics on religious affiliation.
Looking to the recent Pew report itself, this narrative of disassociation holds out. As Ross Douthat notes in the New York Times, “The evangelical population is holding steady or increasing slightly in the Pew data… but evangelical denominations (the Southern Baptists, most notably) are plateauing and losing ground while non-denominational churches gain instead.” The only Christian group that grew as a result of “religious switching” was the group least tied to denominational nomenclature. Douthat also creates a helpful classification system of “biblical, spiritual and secular” to help understand the Pew data. Those in the spiritual camp (as opposed to the biblical) are perhaps best described as “Moralistic Therapeutic Deists.” Douthat suggests that these people are dropping their nominal affiliations without dropping their spiritual beliefs. As he notes, church attendance is barely down – suggest additionally that the religious practices of most Americans have remained unchanged.
The Pew Report titles itself “America’s Changing Religious Landscape.” Individual affiliation has undoubtedly changed, but the practice of religion in America – as measured by prayer, church attendance, belief in the Bible, and belief in the importance of religion – has remained essentially steady. Self-identification is simply not the best measure of religiosity. Insofar as decreased affiliation is a problem, it is a problem affecting many aspects of American society – including civic association, political association and practice, and volunteering – in addition to organized religion. Religious sentiment remains robust in America. One of many measures of this could be its effect on the pocketbooks of religious Americans who donated $13 billion in 2009 to overseas relief and development (compared to $5 billion from foundations, $6 billion from private and voluntary organizations, and $9 billion from corporations). America’s religious influence is strong despite the country’s declining social capital. Predictions about the future of American religion ought to be more circumspect regarding religious practice (rather than centering on affiliation) and also take into account American’s increasing disinclination to associate in general.
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